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B Newbie
49 Total Posts		 2011 contenders
Thread Created On 12/5/2010 6:46:00 PM

Based on whats going to back next year.

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B Gold Ball
816 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 7:55:00 PM

I would guess Adna, Napavine, Nasalle,

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B LEGEND
2232 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 8:10:00 PM

Naselle loses 2 kids I think. Adna loses 3. P-vine loses 6or7 (a guess) and some very good skill players.  All 3 should be in the mix come playoff time.

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B Gold Ball
816 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 8:20:00 PM

What does Orcas Is lose this year

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B Gold Ball
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RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 8:22:00 PM

Colfax will need to rebuild again.

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Ultra-Mag

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B LEGEND
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RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 8:22:00 PM

I guess I'll bale as soon as the football threads slow down.

I can't speak with any kind of intelligence of what the east has for next year and lost track of our west side North brothers but I will take a stab at D4.  Now I'm not going to number these schools for a reason from 1 to 16 because many things can change over the course of 9 months.  I will however, put the top 4 in each league.  As for the order....

Central

Adna-- Returns their entire backfield except for Konnor Moon.  He was a asset that on a typical team would be very hard to replace but with Young coming of age, should be just fine.  Zurfluh at the helm will be quite a sight to behold throughout the season.  He's very agile,can pass and is very confident.  Zurf is a natural leader which is one of his biggest assets.  Bubba Lara and Matt Elliott will be seniors and are currently hitting the weights with the rest of the kids that are sore about that Gold Ball leaving our trophy case.    

The other starting senior we lose to graduation is Tyler Dotson.  He was an incredible asset on defense and offense.  He will be tough to replace but with about15 freshmen this year and about the same next year, one of those 30 kids alone in the lower grades should be able to develop, step up to the challenge and get the job done.  Other than those two, everyone is back and will be hungry.  They are all in the weight room working hard and should be all the bigger, stronger, faster and wiser for next season.  Adna will be tough next season.  There should be over 50 kids on our sidelines next season.  I would suggest that coach Johnson try to get in on a freshmen football league.  There should be enough for Freshmen, JV and Varsity in little 'ol Adna next season and will keep the kids motivated to keep turning out.  Dandy coach and staff!!!  We have recent title hardware to prove it.

Napavine-- They lose a few but their line is coming back and their line wasn't bad at all.  They almost ended South Bends season in the quarters (16-7).  That should tell you loads of how good they were.  If Fay puts Tucker Stanley in at qb next year, he'll resemble South Bends qb only difference is he's a solid passer also which should put defensive planners into a head spin all season long.  That kid will be the complete package leaning towards the run a bit more though.  Napavine will fair just fine next season in the Central, most likely top two.  Good coach and staff.  They have recent title hardware to prove it.

MWP-- This coming season was supposed to be their season.  That should tell you loads due to the fact they went 9-1 in the Central this year.  They'll have big shoes to fill on the line and their qb but with the incredible talent coming up, they should fill those shoes just fine.  Look for them to finish top 4 in the central worst case but probably better.  Not sold on their coach but their staff is one of the best.

Wahkiakum-- Everything hinges on how well that very youthful line develops over this off season.  They showed an impressive amount of promise this year.  If they come of age and Lars Blix has the time to pass or room to run, the central could be in for a rude awakening next season.  As always, everything hinges on the line of scrimmage.  Anyone want to argue this fact???  Those questions won't be answered until next season. Keep a close eye on them.  They have a good coach that has an incredible record in the Central to prove it.

The rest-- Toutle is still a question along with Mossyrock.  Mossyrock will be starting from scratch even with their coach.  PeEll has lost any zeal they had with their football program (except when they play us) but with a different coach, I'll put them in the same boat as Mossyrock which is a question.  The Central has too much at the top end for any of these lower tier teams to surpise any of them so how well they perform in league play is yet to be seen.  To sum up the Central top 5 for the crossover games, the top four are safely spoken for.  The only question will be who wants the 5th spot bad enough.  That should be between Toutle, Mossyrock, PeEll, Winlock and VC. 

Winlock, after talking to one of their players pretty extensively tonight, is doomed to mediocrity next season best case.  Their hopes of making noise in the Central was this year and they did one game better than I thought they would.  Sturza and company graduate this year and not alot are present to replace them.  Soccer rules the roost with the boys this time of year.   I hope the best for them.  The last and probably least is VC.  As for particulars on them???

Pacific

Naselle-- Watch them.  They only had two seniors if I remember correct.  They were very tough this year and played us very well in the crossover game.  Although they are an opt up team, look for them to rule the roost in the Pacific next season.  If they acquire the same discipline as South Bend had up front (which they weren't too far off!), they could be a spoiler for one of the Central teams later in the playoffs. Good coach

Willapa Valley-- They lose Friese, their all everything qb.  He will be nearly impossible to replace but with all the other kids getting older, they should be quite competitive. Great coach and good staff.  Has the title hardware to prove it.

Raymond-- This coming season is the beginning of the terror that has been predicted for years now.  They may contend with Naselle for the title and if it gets to that point, may even be state title contenders although that may still be a year out.. All eyes and ears on Raymond and Wahkiakum to be spoilers for the rest of us. I'm not sure about their coach and staff.  Someone who does, please fill me in...

South Bend--- It's my understanding that there was at least a dozen kids walking the halls of South Bends HS that could've played football.  They may start coming out of the woodworks now that they have a state title.  If all stays the same and no one extra than expected turns out, they should finish way down in the Pacific but still make the crossover game which should be the end of the line.  South Bend is going to lose all those studs up front that put them on the map. Good coach, NOW HAS THE HARDWARE TO PROVE IT.

The rest-- Ocosta, NorthBeach, and maybe NW Christian.  NW Christian may be dumping their football program and as for Ocosta and North Beach, they will remain at the bottom unless something dramatically changes.  They have the numbers to be competative but that's about it.  The end result should be the first four will earn a crossover game but the fifth spot will be a toss up with Ocosta, North Beach or NW Christian if they have a team next season.

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B LEGEND
2232 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 8:31:00 PM

Orcas loses 9 kids.

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B Newbie
43 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 10:56:00 PM

 NW Christian may be dumping their football program 
-UM

Is this true? where did this come from?


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B Fan
134 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 11:07:00 PM

The info I heard was that NWC-L had something like 19 kids playing football this year and 10 of them were seniors.  They only had 1 freshman.  If they can't find a few more non-cross country bodies around campus, the math doesn't work out well.

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B Fan
138 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/5/2010 11:14:00 PM

TB returns 17 starters (9 offense, 8 defense) and should contend with Orcas in the North.


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B Newbie
43 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/7/2010 10:07:00 AM

No NWC would make an already interesting pacific league a little more so next year

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B Silver Ball
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RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/7/2010 5:47:00 PM

Napavine started 3 freshman on their offensive line and 2 on their defensive line against South Bend. They lose 5 seniors, including "the beast" but have capable kids coming back at the skilled positions. The freshman lineman would probably have started for most of the teams in the state and done well, they are that big and talented! Still, I have to give the nod next year to Adna and MWP is going to be very good as well.
I was also very impressed with the Padbury kid from Orcas. He took his knocks against South Bend but delivered his share of blows also. He is a tough kid and is probably the best passer in the state. Given these 4 teams and I'm sure there are others I didn't see, the West will be extremely tough next year!

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B LEGEND
1263 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/8/2010 9:52:00 AM

For any of the teams from the East to compete with District 4 next year it appears we are going to need to step up our recruiting process or the Gold Ball will stay over West.

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B LEGEND
2607 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/8/2010 1:58:00 PM

Recruit all you want, eastside.

If I can get Johnson and Moon to buy into the freshman football idea, coupled with the inevitable growth (Onalalska and Toledo) of the Central as a whole, it won't matter much.

If anyone didn't catch that idea.  It was taking our freshmen class and putting them into the 2A evergreen league.  We should have enough kids to make this happen on the freshmen level and Johnson would still have over 30 kids to choose from for jv and varsity from grades 10-12. 

Actually these numbers are maybe a few years away for freshmen football but cool thought anyway.

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B Gold Ball
935 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/8/2010 2:25:00 PM

Must be nice UM to have that many interested football players.  I'm hoping Napavine can get some more numbers next year.  Their current sophomore and junior classes have very few athletes (or few that turn out that is).   Next years freshman class had 22 boys playing football when they were 7th graders though, so maybe there's hope.  Not having JV this year was a frigging bummer.

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B LEGEND
5842 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/9/2010 8:17:00 AM

UM

You are still caught on the Ony and Toledo drop down..


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B LEGEND
2607 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/9/2010 8:43:00 AM

What would be different from last week?  What I've heard, if they were to do the count today (which would be their 9, 10 and 11) they would make the count.   I'm closer to being correct than not....

It's worth mentioning and speculating  at the very least...

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B LEGEND
5842 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/9/2010 8:49:00 AM

Do the count with these past years numbers??


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B LEGEND
2607 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/9/2010 9:01:00 AM

9-10-11 this year will be 10-11-12 next year when the count is actually done.....

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B LEGEND
5842 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/9/2010 9:04:00 AM

I know how the count works..

What cut off numbers are you using???


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B LEGEND
2607 Total Posts
RE: 2011 contenders
Posted 12/9/2010 9:17:00 AM

LOL!! 

I thought I was clear about this but maybe not.  I was using the current count spread of 94-207.  The assumption was if all stays relatively the same, both those schools make the count with ease (180's).

You can kick #'s right out the door though and go off of actual schools.  Somewhere around 60 schools per class.  If what I'm saying might happen, does actually happen then that means roughly two schools would need to leave the 2B's next count.  Pvine will most likely be one.  They have many more kids than Ony or Toledo for that count.  The other is ???????.  A lot of possibilities....


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